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This morning, as most of you already know, the Supreme Court ruled that the Privacy Protection and Affordable Care Act (commonly known as ACA) is constitutional and basically left the entire law intact. While it was no surprise that this was a close 5-4 decision, it was surprising that rather than rule that certain sections of the law were unconstitutional (e.g., the individual mandate), it was either an all-in or all-out dividing line (those in dissent would have thrown the entire law out the window). In fact, among our esteemed and we like to think highly knowledgeable readers, two-thirds voted in our prediction poll that ACA would be circumscribed by the Supreme Court while 17% felt the law would be upheld in its entirety.

Implications of Decision:
We are an analyst firm that is focused on the adoption and use of healthcare IT. Thus the implications of the Supreme Court decision which follow are focused on just that:

Healthcare systems will continue to aggressively move forward to form comprehensive care delivery systems (acquiring practices, long-term care facilities, etc.) to more effectively manage their patient populations across care settings. This will in turn require greater clinical connectivity and integration across these care settings. Expect to see very strong demand for health information exchanges.

Payers will continue to struggle with improving their operating margins. Some, such as United Health Group and Aetna, have ventured into the more lucrative and higher margin HIT market via acquisitions. Expect to see other payers make a move here as well jumping into the HIT market via acquisition(s).

Payers will also venture directly into care delivery via partnerships with large providers to stand-up ACO-like entities (e.g., Blue Cross of CA & Dignity Health) or acquire (e.g., Highmark and West Allegheny). We may also see some payers be quite innovative and begin providing more state-of-the-art, low cost concierge care services such as One Medical to serve the vast pool of some 30M+ new members nationwide.

To effectively and efficiently survive under future bundled care reimbursement models, hospital systems will finally have to get truly serious about patient engagement. No longer can they view this as just something for the marketing department to deal with (listen to yesterday’s podcast) but will need to actively engage with patients and aggressively encourage self-management of chronic diseases. This need will lead to a blossoming of innovation in new solutions, be they mobile, telehealth, whatever you want to call it to improve patient adherence outside of the clinical setting.

Got Analytics? Yes, analytics is going to be huge but today, most analytics solutions are not up to the task of serving all healthcare provider needs, or at least no single solution/vendor is. Providers will need to accept the fact that for the foreseeable future they’ll be purchasing best-of-breed solutions. But providers also need to do their homework as we predict that there will be a significant amount of consolidation, via acquisition, in this market over the next five years. And one last word of advice to providers, don’t count on your EHR vendor to deliver these solutions anytime soon.

Of course there is far more that we could delve into on the implications of this ruling to the HIT market but for now believe we have provided enough to get your collective  juices flowing. Is there anything we missed that you believe is screaming out loud in the HIT market due to this decision? If so, please let us know via a comment – we love comments!

In closing, hope all have a great July 4th week ahead and…

God Bless America

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The 2012 HIE Market Report has seen brisk sales to date – thank you one and all for your business.

But there is just a small problem with sales, virtually all have been to consulting firms and HIT vendors. While we are more than happy to serve them, this report is also intended to serve those looking to adopt an HIE solution and need some guidance on which vendors to put on their short list (this is really are target market).  A number of organizations who purchased last year’s report found the report extremely valuable in their decision process. That’s fantastic and just what we had hoped for as core to our mission here at Chilmark Research is to provide guidance in the effective adoption and use of HIT.

We have received a number of inquiries from just such organizations since the 2012 HIE report was released yet despite their interest, they have universally stated that the report’s cost is slightly out of reach.

OK, we hear you loud and clear.

To rectify the matter, we are offering a 33% discount to the published price but this discount only goes to healthcare organizations that are looking to adopt an HIE solution (vendors, consultants, etc. are excluded from this discount). All you have to do is fire-off a quick email to us (info@chilmarkresearch.com) and we’ll provide you a discount code that you can use at check-out from the Chilmark Research Store when you purchase the report. Please use your organization’s email account so we can verify your place of employment. Also, as with any report we sell, you will receive an enterprise license which allows you to share the report with anyone in your organization, however, you can not share the report with those who are not direct employees.

Some organizations have already taken advantage of the discount and we hope you will as well. We are confident that the content contained within the 2012 HIE Report will provide you the clearest picture of the market today and the vendors servicing the market. This report will save your organization countless man-hours in collecting this information on your own. We’ve already done the work for you – take advantage of it.

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This morning we announced the release of our latest report: 2012 HIE Market Report: Analysis and Trends of the Health information Exchange Market. As we found in last year’s report, the HIE Market and the vendors that serve it continues to be a very dynamic.

In little over a year we have seen several vendors exit the market, several others enter and the acquisitions of Carefx by Harris and MobileMD by Siemens. We also saw Microsoft pull completely out of the clinical market by turning over all its HIT assets (except HealthVault) to the new joint venture with GE, Caradigm.

Yet in spite of all this turmoil, the market continues to see spectacular growth in excess of 40% in 2011. The big news with all this growth is that only a small portion of it is coming via the HITECH Act and the various statewide HIE contracts that were awarded. No, the big market that literally all HIE vendors are now targeting is the private, “enterprise” market. Healthcare organizations (HCO) of all sizes are now looking to deploy HIE technology to not only meet Meaningful Use requirements, but respond to the pending changes in reimbursement, moving from a fee for service model to one that is based on outcomes.

To be successful under these new payment models, HCOs must better manage operations and the complete care cycle of a patient across care settings. In a community of heterogeneous EHRs, HCOs are adopting HIE technology at an accelerated rate to unlock the data silos of EHRs across the community to enable higher quality of care.

Arguably, the 2012 HIE Market Report’s most significant finding is…

The healthcare sector is rapidly moving to the post-EHR era. The value of patient data is not in the data silos of EHRs but in the network that an HIE supports.

The report provides the most comprehensive overview of the market and what are the significant trends that are driving this market forward. The report also provides a deep dive review of 22 leading HIE vendors, including product capability assessment and market presence. This information, compiled through in-depth research and countless interviews, provides all HIE stakeholders with the most accurate view of the market today.

It is our sincere hope that the information contained in this report will contribute to furthering the success of HIE deployments in the future as we strongly believe that only through health information exchange (the verb) can we improve the quality of health delivered within a community and ultimately, the nation.

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Last week we attended the big healthcare IT confab HIMSS in that grand city of sin, Las Vegas. While many spoke of how HIMSS hit an all time record of over 37K attendees (an impressive number), HIMSS is still dwarfed by what is arguably the largest US-based healthcare trade show, RSNA, which had a 2011 attendance of just over 57K, (roughly 54% greater than HIMSS). Why such a radical difference you ask? As one colleague put it:

RSNA is where providers come to make money and HIMSS is where they go to lose money.

While that may be the case today, it is unlikely to be so in the future. The healthcare industry is undergoing a massive transformation that will likely take a decade to complete as we transition from a reimbursement model largely based on fee for service to one based on outcomes. Under this new model, providers will be taking on a greater portion of risk. In reward, these providers have an opportunity to receive a significantly higher net reimbursement. This transition is making for some interesting bedfellows as payers and providers join together to create new care delivery models such as Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) and Patient Centered Medical Homes (PCMHs). These new models will be increasingly dependent on a robust HIT infrastructure to effectively measure quality, risk and performance, something that simply cannot be done effectively with the antiquated systems that are in place today in many healthcare organizations (HCOs).

Nearly every vendor we met with at HIMSS had a story to tell about how they had the solution the market was seeking for ACO enablement. This was not entirely unexpected for last year we thought that would be the year of ACO. Obviously, we were a little ahead of ourselves and the industry with that prediction but alas it has come to pass. Small problem though: HIT vendors have had plenty of time to prepare their solutions for ACO enablement but to our surprise, most solutions were still far from mature. Frankly, we are not too worried about this right now for Chilmark is forecasting significant evolution, innovation, and in short-time maturity in these solutions as customers (HCOs) further define what they truly need to succeed in this new world order of reimbursement for healthcare delivery in the US.

This raises what our research team found to be the most significant learning from HIMSS’12.

As most of you already know, ONC made quite a splash at HIMSS by announcing the release of Stage 2 meaningful use (MU) requirements (we’ll have a future post on the implications of these requirements later this week). But honestly, we did not see a wild wrangling of commentary and discussion in the halls of HIMSS’12 regarding these new requirements. Maybe this was because most attendees were simply addressing the needs of today and did not have time to thoroughly review these new requirements. But we believe something else may be at work here.

Our Thesis:
The MU requirements have become little more than a “spec-sheet” for vendors, consultants and IT shops and departments. These requirements have nothing to do with innovation and have little to do with the dramatic changes that will occur in this industry in the next decade. Quoting that oft-used phrase, “follow the money” one can quickly see that the billions in funding for incentivizing providers to adopt EHRs under the HITECH Act is relative chump change to the dramatic fortunes that may be won or lost under the new value-based payment models that are proliferating throughout the industry – payment models that commonly fall under the rubric of ACO or PCMH. In each of these models, EHRs are important to a degree, they are part of the basic infrastructure. But it is what one does with the data that matters (collect, communicate, collaborate, synthesize, analyze, measure and improve). Therefore, if you want to see innovation look beyond today and the tactical push to effectively adopt and meaningfully use EHRs and towards the future of how that data will be used to drive quality improvements, better outcomes and lowering risk exposure.

And speaking of risks…

What was clearly lacking at this year’s HIMSS was patient engagement. Yes, there was a seminar on the topic and sure, everyone speaks of patient-centric care but there was little evidence among exhibitors at this year’s HIMSS (with a few exceptions, e.g., Cerner, MEDSEEK, RelayHealth) that spoke to the need to engage patients as part of the care team. Get a clue folks, one will never get to that nirvana of a truly effective ACO or PCMH without active, effective engagement of the patient. Not having an engaged patient is your greatest risk.

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(Note: This is the second of a two-part post.)

Keeping it Local

This is most representative of the status quo and the most realistic path forward for the vast majority of payers who typically operate at the local level. In this scenario, one or more health plans in a regional market partner with other community stakeholders to co-fund and sustain a regional HIE. These stakeholders typically include large corporations with a large local employee base and/or provider organizations. Successful examples of such multi-stakeholder HIEs include the Louisville HIE (Humana, Anthem, Ford, Yum! and Kroger), and the Rochester RHIO, where payers (Aetna, BCBS, MVP) and hospitals share a 2/1 split of all operating expenses on a transaction model.

The benefit to payers in participating and most often funding the majority of such an HIE is three-fold. First, partnering with other organizations in the region contributes to a greater “fabric of trust” between the HIE and physicians within the region leading to greater physician participation. Secondly, by partnering with others, the payer is able to share HIE operating costs with other stakeholders. Third, physicians actively exchanging patient data can prevent some hospital readmissions and decrease duplicative lab and imaging tests, thereby lowering a payer’s total coverage cost in the region.

Conclusion: As HIE’s unfold at the community scale, local and regional stakeholders will share the operating costs and governance. As far as payer support for HIE’s goes, Chilmark predicts continued growth of these types of HIEs, particularly in less urban communities. We also predict that there will be significant growth in enterprise HIEs that are partially funded by payers, ultimately in support of a payer-provider partnership to establish an ACO. (Again, look to the recently announced NaviNet-Lumeris deal wherein three regional payers also played a role. For those payers, it’s all about making the provider transition to ACO/PCMH models as frictionless as possible.)

Real Challenges Remain

Despite a seemingly straightforward path for payers to get involved with HIE’s, there remain a number of challenges. These are two-fold in nature: Regulatory and Marketplace. On the regulatory front, the list of challenges is long and familiar: ICD-10 (while it seems like there will be another delay, much to the chagrin of the AMA this isn’t just going to go away) and HIPAA 5010, health insurance exchanges and other health reform mandates. (On the plus side, health information exchange-related spending counts favorably towards new medical loss ratio (MLR) rules).

However, the marketplace is where the true challenges lie, as there is hardly a guarantee that payers and provider groups will play nice with each other. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Western PA market, where a sort of fisticuffs have been going on between Highmark BCBS and UPMC.  Without going into the sordid details, Highmark (who just bought Pittsburgh’s second largest hospital network, West Penn Allegheny) and UPMC are now building competing HIEs in the same region because of a longstanding spat over contract negotiations. To hospitals who are now faced with participating in two separate HIE’s, this does not make much sense.

For the payers however, it does make sense when cast against the backdrop of rising competition. (Chilmark noted this challenge after attending the AHIP confab last summer.) Insurers are fighting with each other to keep their networks competitive. Providers are fighting with each other to secure preferred referral status, i.e. patient volume. Introducing an HIE in the middle of this environment has wide reaching implications for where patients are sent as well as who accrues and shares the savings. Throw in the variable of different reimbursement rates for commercial, Medicare and Medicare Advantage patients and you can see why partnering up to set up an information network is more than simply writing a check.

2012 and Beyond

So what does this all mean for a huge guest who’s seemingly unwanted at the party? Ultimately, payers’ involvement boils down into a few categories:

  • In the light of the tighter margins imposed by health reform, insurers who can afford it will diversify their business. The national health plans will be looking to acquire their own platform ala Aetna and UHG, with the additional hopes of squeezing cost savings out provider users and building a more favorable MLR. The main considerations in predicting this shift include vendor consolidation and the readiness of existing provider networks to collaborate.
  • Regional Insurers, such as the Blues and other statewide or multistate networks, have the wherewithal to setup and license their own platform for exchange either through payer-payer partnerships or on their own. The recent NaviNet deal seems to be more of an ACO play, but indicative of the business strategy of this class of payers who are willing and able to be flexible in how they approach their role as stakeholder in information networks.
  • Local Insurers who have fewer resources and who operate directly in the tides of market competition will opt for a ‘safer,’ multi-stakeholder approach in their communities. Partnerships will be heavily influenced by network dynamics, reimbursement channels and existing arrangements, such as burgeoning accountable care communities.

So, as rosy as information exchange seems on paper, it is permanently changing the way that provider and payer groups do business. From where Chilmark stands as an observer of the market’s evolution, it is all too clear that payers and providers ultimately have little choice but to work together. Payment reform and millions in IT incentives have already begun to influence the way that the delivery and payment markets work; the future of accountable care, proactive population health management and ‘smart’ health care delivery all depend on willing and trusting partnerships.

Unfortunately, as is too often the case, patients and other stakeholders get left out of the decision calculus. Pittsburgh residents will hardly benefit from the competitive business posturing there. We hope the folks deploying HIE’s over the coming years will put as much of an emphasis on leadership and governance as they do on technology and of course, the health of their business.

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Acquisition fever has set in and they’re dropping like flies, independent HIE vendors that is. Earlier today, Siemens announced its intent to acquire enterprise HIE vendor MobileMD. So in little over a year we have seen IBM snag Initiate, Axolotl fall into the hands of Ingenix/United Health Group (Ingenix is now known as OptumInsight), Medicity tie the knot with Aetna, Harris pick-up Dept of Defense clinician portal darling Carefx and Wellogic, a damsel in distress, being rescued by Alere. Elsevier also announce an intent to acquire dbMotion for a whooping $310M, but nothing came of that other than a substantiation of the rumor that dbMotion was being shopped.

That does not leave many small, independent HIE vendors that have some traction left in the market. Following is our list of such vendors and what might become of them:

4medica: A relative new comer to the HIE market, 4medica will be profiled for the first time in the upcoming HIE Market Trends Report which is scheduled for release in early 2012. 4medica is quite strong on lab information exchange. Future: 4medica still remains under the radar screen as it completes its platform to truly serve all HIE needs. Once that process is complete, the company is likely to gain increasing attention and will be acquired in 18-14 months.

Care Evolution: Privately owned and self-funded, founder has every intent to stay independent. As he has told us on more than one occasion, I’ve already made plenty of money and this is not about cashing out to the highest bidder. Future: Everyone has a price but this company may be one of the last to fall into the arms of another.

Certified Data Systems: Appliance (think small router with embedded HIE functionality) HIE vendor that has close, yet non-exclusive partnership with Cerner. Would not be surprised if they struck a similar deal with Epic as Epic struggles to connect to EHRs outside its system. Future: Fairly new to the HIE market but gaining traction. Will stay independent for next 12-18 months, after that, anyone’s guess.

dbMotion: One company already made a bid, but pulled back, thus pretty clear this company will be acquired, question is how much and we suspect it will be significantly less than what Elsevier was planning to pay. Future: If price is right, could be acquired at anytime.

HealthUnity: Small HIE vendor from the Pacific Northwest that made a big splash when with Microsoft (Amalga UIS) they won the big Chicago HIE contract. Future: With Microsoft cozying up close to Orion, HealthUnity will be looking hard for other partners and/or to be acquired. Will give them 12-18 months as an independent.

ICA: Another small HIE vendor that has had a few wins here and there but will come under increasing pressure from larger, better funded HIEs. Future: Likely to be acquired in next 6-12 months, maybe even earlier.

ICW: InterComponent Ware is a German HIT company and a sizable one at that with over 600 employees. To date, ICW has a very small presence in the US HIE market so an acquisition, if there were one, would have little impact.  Future: Their foreign ownership, size and interests in several health related markets make them an unlikely candidate for acquisition.

InterSystems: Arms dealer to all, InterSystems Cache and Ensemble are widely used in the market and the company has built upon these core technologies to get into HIE market. Future: Fiercely independent and senior team is basically the same since founding this company will remain independent.

Kryptiq: Having signed a strong partnership deal with Surescripts, Kryptiq is unlikely to be interested in any acquisitions talks. Future: Will remain independent for time being and if Surescripts’ Clinical Interoperability solution gains significant traction, Surescripts will likely acquire Kryptiq outright.

Orion Health: New Zealand-based, privately owned with good prospects in markets beyond America’s shores, this company will likely want to stay independent (future IPO) unless of course a very large software company (think IBM, Microsoft, Oracle etc.) gives them an offer they can’t refuse. Future: Will stay independent.

Getting back to the Siemens/MobileMD deal…

While we have not had an opportunity to talk with either Siemens or MobileMD (will provide follow-on update once we do) here are some quick take-aways:

Siemens has chosen to buy. This is unlike other EHR vendors who have either built their own HIE solution (athenahealth, eClinicalWorks, Epic, NextGen) or have partnered with others (Allscripts, Cerner, GE).

Existing partner doesn’t cut it. Siemens has an existing partnership with NextGen for ambulatory but NextGen’s HIE is a closed system. This prevented Siemens from being able to leverage this partnership to serve their client needs, which most often includes a multitude of EHRs in the ambulatory sector to interface with.

Lacked sufficient internal resources. By buying into the market, Siemens has signalled that it does not have the development resources to respond quickly enough to customer demand (not too surprising, Siemens has been struggling in the North American market for sometime). This also signals that they could not find the right partner outside of their NextGen relationship, which is a tad puzzling as we are quite sure they paid a premium for MobileMD.

Paid a premium. We estimated MobileMD sales in 2010 just shy of $8M in our 2011 HIE Market Report. HIE vendors are selling at a premium, even second tier ones such as MobileMD. Assuming industry average growth in 2011 (we peg it at 30%) that would give MobileMD sales of ~$10.5M for 2011. We put the final strike price for MobileMD at $95-110M.

Existing MobileMD customers relived. Unlike the acquisitions of Axolotl and Medicity, which both fell into the hands of payers, MobileMD is going to a fellow HIT vendor which must assuage the fears of more than a few MobileMD customers and prospects. Siemens intends to keep MobileMD whole, bringing on-board MobileMD’s president and founder, again contributing to continuity.

ADDENDUM: Please excuse our lack of posting on industry trends in a more frequent manner. Like many in the healthcare sector, Chilmark Research is struggling to keep up with demand and recruit top-notch resources. We seem to have hit our stride in this market, are receiving countless engagement inquiries and engaging in most of them. All good problems to have, but you dear reader are the one who ultimately suffers from our lack of posts. Thank you for your patience to date and know that we are doing our best to keep you informed with some of the best research and analysis of this critically important and meaningful market.

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On Monday, New Zealand based Orion Health announced that it would acquire the mothballed Health Information Services (HIS) assets of Microsoft, Amalga HIS. In the same announcement, Orion and Microsoft also announced a partnership for Microsoft’s healthcare analytics solution Amalga UIS.

Microsoft, during its HIT buying binge days a few years back had picked up the Thai-based HIS company, Global Care Solutions. Global Care Solutions was credited with building the HIS for medical tourism destination Bumrungad hospital in Thailand. While Microsoft tried to quell EHR vendor fears in the US that this HIS solution suite, later rebranded as Amalga HIS, would only be sold overseas and not it the US, most EHR partners chose to put some distance between themselves and Microsoft. Needless to say, this created far more challenges for Microsoft and its still budding healthcare sector initiatives and the company decided to discontinue further investment in Amalga HIS in July 2010, effectively putting it on the market.

Now, over a year later, Microsoft has finally found a buyer for this asset in Orion Health, who, like Microsoft, has stated that it does not intend to sell this solution suite in the US but instead focus on the Australian and Asian markets. Would not be at all surprising if Orion further extended that reach to all Commonwealth countries, which has been the company’s Go-to-Market (GTM) strategy to date. In speaking with Orion yesterday, they reiterated their intentions to not sell this solution suite in the US market.

Seeing as it took Microsoft over a year to unload Amalga HIS, one has to wonder: Was this solution suite poorly architected or was Microsoft asking far more for it than what others were willing to pay? Having been demo’d the solution on a couple of occasions, likely the latter. Which then makes one wonder, so what kind of deal was actually struck? Our guess is that it had a lot to do with the second portion of this press release, that was overlooked by most in the press, the future partnership surrounding Amalga UIS.

Our latest research on the HIE market is pointing to a significant increase in interest in combining the basics of an HIE (getting clinical data flowing) with analytics to deliver better, more informed care and equally important, optimize the operations of a healthcare organization. As the healthcare sector moves from a transaction-based reimbursement model (fee for service) to one based on outcomes (value-based contracts), analytics will play an increasingly critical role. Thus, we are seeing a number of moves in the market, both acquisitions and partnerships, that look to more closely tie what have been two disparate offerings into one cohesive package.

Orion Health does not have a robust analytics solution. Microsoft does not have a robust HIE solution. Bringing the two together could create a powerful offering and potentially put Orion on equal footing with other HIE market leaders that are currently a step ahead of them with regards to analytics, including OptumInsight (former Axolotl + Ingenix), Thomson Reuters and Care Evolution and their HIEBus platform and IBM, who acquired Initiate in 2010. For Microsoft, this also could be a significant win for to date, they have struggled to find a strong Tier One HIE partner – with Orion, they have found such a partner that could juice sales for Amalga UIS.

But this is far from a done deal for as with any partnership, the devil is always in the details. Based on our conversations with both companies, they do appear to be cognizant of the challenges that lay before them. The biggest challenge will be getting Amalga into a form factor that accelerates time to value for those who adopt this solution. To date, the Amalga solution has seen more than its fair share of challenges in the field in this regard. Couple that with the Orion customer base, which is weighted towards public HIEs, and one can foresee some significant GTM challenges for these two companies in the future. Allscripts faced a similar challenge with HIE partner dbMotion. Orion and Microsoft would be wise to look closely at how Allscripts successfully addressed this challenge for their target market.

 

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